Next Gen Voter

Countdown to Election 2020: Races to Watch

Episode Summary

This episode of Next Generation Voter explores the landscape of the 2020 election just days before Election Day. What should you be looking for in national races on election night?

Episode Notes

This episode of Next Generation Voter explores the landscape of the 2020 election just days before Election Day.  This episode highlights races to watch on election night, including: 

• Battle for Control of the US House (or lack thereof)
• Presidential battlefield and how it has changed since 2016
• Races to Watch for Control of the US Senate (candidates, trends, and tidbits)
• Trump's effect on down ballot Republicans
• How the polls don't matter if you don't show up to vote!

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Episode Transcription

Hi I’m Riley Daniel and this is the next gen podcast, the only podcast of the next gen by the next gen, for the next gen. It’s now october 2020, which means that votes are being cast at early voting sites and through mail, debates are on TV at least once a week, and new polls are being released by the minute. I thought it would be a good idea to talk through some of the important races, states and candidates to watch over this month, who will decide the balance of power for at least the next two years. Just to note, All data is accurate as of October 8, when this episode began recording.

• ME-2: Presidential(Biden +1.0), 2016: Trump +10: Has moved sharply toward Biden in the last month, however a recent poll showed Trump up 8. Talk about Ranked Choice voting
• ME: Senate Gideon v. Collins. Talk about the narrative of Susan Collins. Gideon has led in every general election poll this season(Gideon has consistently had a mid single digit lead).
• NH: Should go to Biden, but has not seen a dramatic shift like in the senate and governor races(shaheen, sununu) Biden+10
• IA: President Race has shifted to the point where Biden is up 1 point in the weighted average, in a state that went to Presidents Obama and Trump(+10). Important senate race that could likely flip the senate if the democrats were to win. Greenfield is currently up in the Iowa Senate Race by 5 points on Joni Ernst. Will SCOTUS seat help? For GOP, Iowa is must win in both races
• MI: Looks very likely to go to Biden as he is up 8 points in the state(Held a lead of at least 6 points since beginning of June). Senate Race is closer as John James is a good candidate, but Peters is still very likely to win the race
• WI: Biden has a 7 point lead, gone up by a point in the last month. He has been very consistent in his lead, with all reputable polls in september showing Biden ahead
• PA: Most likely to be the tipping point state( 26%), explain what tipping point means. Biden is currently up by 7 points. Big shift in the last month towards Biden, from 4 point average to 7 point average.
• FL: Hardest to predict state. Biden is doing well with seniors, which is traditionally GOP. Trump cut into latino margin of Biden thanks to Cuban-Americans and socialism. Talk quickly about amendment 4 controversy. Biden +4 today, but recent polls have fluctuated from Trump +4 to Biden +11. After the post-election day movement in 2018, unlikely to know the winner quickly if the state is within 2 points.
• VA: Formerly a swing state in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Seems likely to be a safe Biden state as he’s up 12, very few polls.
• MN: Trump invested heavily in trying to flip Minnesota after the big shift toward GOP in 2016. Was as close as 4.5 points in August, but Trump’s efforts seem to have fallen flat as he is now down 9, and has cut planned ad buys as the state has drifted out of reach. Tina Smith is very likely to win reelection, as she is outperforming Biden consistently.
• NC: Probably the most important state for the democrats as they have the chance to hold governor race and flip a senate seat as well as beat Trump Here. Cunningham(+5) vs. Tillis. Talk about Tillis’s Covid and Cunningham’s inappropriate texts. Cooper should win as he is up about 10 points on average. Biden +3 in polls, but it has remained within margin of error throughout the whole election season.
• SC: What the hell happened here: Lindsey was supposed to coast to reelection; had most money of any incumbent except for McConnell. Jaime Harrison has slowly but consistently eaten up his lead, to the point where he is now leading today’s poll, and more than doubling Graham’s fundraising, forcing the GOP to defend a seat in South Carolina, which is now a toss-up
• Tx: Texas is a swing state, regardless of what Republicans are telling you. Equally likely for Biden to win Texas than Trump win Florida, due to the heavy latino support Biden enjoys. Currently, Trump's average lead is 1 point, which considering that Texas overestimated him by 3 points in 2016, is not a good spot for him. Hegar is currently down 6 points on average but the most recent polls have seen narrowing significantly after Trump’s disparaging quotes about the military in contrast to Hegar’s service. Additionally, as I will look at, Democrats are targeting a half dozen house seats and trying to flip the state house, which is in reach.
• GA: Three important races. Presidential race is very tight w/ Biden currently leading by 1 point. Two senate races(Ossoff Vs. Perdue which has been all over the place(4 polls in the last week, with 2 each showing both leading). Very expensive race, shows major shift from last senate race which Issakson won by 14 points,(work of Abrams). Speaking of Issakson,(turn to special election)- Jungle Primary. At first it looked like Warnock and Lieberman would cancel each other out, letting Collins + Loeffler in, but Warnock has an average 3 point lead, and seems safe to make the runoff. Who will join him(Loeffler +1.5 on Collins). Democrats see Loeffler as an easier candidate because of her closeness to President Trump’s ideas and racial justice issues. Collins would likely be trouble for GOP in a runoff as he was Trump’s pick for the seat, and it is very likely that Trump would have lost by this point. Could be a runoff for the control of the Senate
• CO: Biden has pulled away in this state(+12) and seems to be uncontested on that Level. Great Senate race to watch between GOP senator Gardner and wildly popular former governor John Hickenlooper.  Hickenlooper has been up by around 10 points in most polls, but they have been few and far between. Dems need to win this race to win back senate
• AZ: Democrats have seemingly turned this state on its head. Biden currently enjoys a 4 point lead in a state that Trump won by 3. Hasn’t gone for a democrat in the presidential race since Clinton 96. Mcsally is an awful candidate. She is on the verge of losing both Arizona senate seats for GOP in just 2 years. Kelly is a phenomenal candidate and fundraiser. Mcsally hasn’t led an unbiased poll in over a year. Kelly(+7) is as likely to win than the republicans are in the senate race in Alabama.
• AL: Doug Jones pulled off a miracle last time by winning in ruby red Alabama. However, this time he is not going up against a child predator in Roy Moore. Tuberville enjoys double digit lead.
• NV: The Clinton state where Biden is objectively in the most trouble, as he has been visiting in recent days trying to shore up support, as he is only up 7, which suggests that he is on par with his national support in a state that leaned more than to the left in 2016.
• NE-2: A Very close race in this district which splits like Maine, but Biden has pulled away to a 7 point lead in this district.
• OH: The final presidential state I am going to talk about is the one that I believe will be the closest. This state has swung back and forth over the campaign with no rhyme or reason, with no one ever leading by more than 3 points throughout the entire campaign. No clue who will win. Biden+1 as off today, but that probably will have changed by tomorrow.
• KS: Former Republican Barbara Bollier has made what should have been a safe seat into a race against GOP rep. Roger Marshall. In a state that Trump will win easily, Bollier has brought this race back to lean republican, and in most recent polls, she has even been leading. Note that if this race goes to the democrats, it is all but a guarantee that Trump has lost, and the democrats have won a multiseat  majority in the senate
• MS: Yet another senate race that Republicans have managed to make somewhat competitive. In a rematch of the 2018 special election, Republican senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing off against Mike Espy. This race has dramatically narrowed, as the initial polls in the spring showed Hyde-Smith up 28 points, and in the most recent poll she only led by one point, showcasing the momentum Espy has. If Espy is to make this realistic, he must have very high african-American turnout and Biden must cut Trump’s Margins among seniors.
• AK: This is a close race between Republican first term senator Dan Sullivan and Independent Al Gross, who is marked, for some reason, as a democrat on the ballot. Currently Sullivan is leading by about 2 points, but Alaska politics are weird, so you never know.
• MT: Senate Race between two very popular figures in Conservative Democratic Governor Steve Bullock and Republican Steve Daines(+3). 2018’s senate Race originally showed Republican Matt Rosendale up, but after several days of votes coming in, Democrat Jon Tester won. Speaking of Rosendale, he is currently in a fight to hold his seat in the house as Kathleen Williams has a 1 point lead in polling averages.
• As for the house, it is all but certain to go to the democrats, with the only question being how many seats do they win? In conclusion, (talk about what would need to happen+Trump’s effect down ballot)